Pandemic Once Aided Jacinda Ardern But It Is Undoing Her Now

The world's most admired prime minister, New Zealand's Jacinda Ardern, has proved that her popularity is not immune to strong political headwinds. On their part, New Zealanders arguably have proved that they are less predisposed to elevate a single political leader to place him/her on a pedestal.

Ardern's chances of being re-elected have hit a new low since she became the youngest female head of government in the world when she was 37 in 2017.

Buoyed by the success in handling the pandemic, Ardern powered her Labor Party to 49.1 percent of the vote share compared with 26.8 percent for the National Party in the October 2020 polls. She won 64 seats in the 120-seat assembly to form the government alone.

That time, Ardern won plaudits for locking down quickly and implementing strict restrictions which helped keep the death toll remarkably low in the Pacific Ocean country.

However, the latest opinion poll by 1 News/Kantar on Aug. 15 stated that right-leaning parties would bag enough support to form a coalition government in the next election, slated for October 2023, in New Zealand.

In the opinion poll, the centre-right National Party became the most popular party, polling at 37 percent. The Labor Party, which Ardern heads, is at 33 percent and its traditional partner, the Green Party, managed to get only 9 percent.

If the National Party joins hands with its traditional partner, the libertarian-right Act party, it can muster enough seats to form a government.

Ardern's fall from grace is caused by rising inflation and a straining health system that eroded support for her and the Labor Party.

New Zealanders have lost faith in their economy because half of Kiwis believe the economy will take a worse turn in the next 12 months, compared with 26 percent of those who hope it will improve.

Christopher Luxon, leader of the National Party, chided the Prime Minister after the opinion poll was conducted as the cost of living soared in the country.

"Kiwis are over the government and they want to change," Luxon said.

However, Arden is still New Zealand's preferred Prime Minister, with a backing of 30 percent compared to 22 percent for the opposition leader.

She faces a stiff challenge from Luxon, formerly the boss of Air New Zealand who became the leader of the opposition last November.

New Zealanders turned their back on Ardern's Labour Party as the nation of five million was forced to live with constant lockdowns, closed borders, and strict vaccination mandates.

Though lockdowns and closed borders helped eliminate the first wave of the virus, it largely isolated the country from the rest of the world and the program eventually backfired.

New Zealanders think it was carried on too far. The country's border only opened at the end of July.

In February, protesters set up camps on parliament grounds to end the pandemic restrictions as thousands of residents were disconnected from family and friends for as long as two-and-a-half years. Their stir lasted for 23 days.

On Aug. 22, they returned to protest against a range of issues outside the parliament. People were up in arms against tighter environmental norms for farmers and the bid to take over water assets.

Since the next election is more than a year away, Ardern has enough time to rise in popularity again, but she had to tide over the months-long trend of slumping support for her government, because of the rising cost of living and a gloomy economic outlook.

New Zealand has witnessed inflation rates of 7.3 percent, a 32-year high. Housing prices have crashed but mortgage interest rates and high costs of building materials have kept new buyers and investors at bay from the real estate sector.

Rents, too, have gone through the roof as new leases were up 6.9 percent while low unemployment is plaguing many New Zealanders. The rising cost will be a much bigger factor with female voters, who gave Ardern a massive lead in the polls in 2020.

Ardern's perceived soft stance on China also became an issue with residents as Beijing offered a series of security contracts to the Pacific island nations.

Ardern became a darling of the international media through her excellent communication skills and likability. However, since the end of 2020, her approval rating has slipped from 50 percent to now just 30 percent.

Ardern is still popular, but not infallible.