Iran Places Itself In A Safe Zone To Bargain At Vienna Nuclear Talks

• Its uranium enrichment site at Natanz was abuzz with activities as recently as Dec. 4 and the Fordow facility near Qom city conducted a test on Dec. 2, according to IAEA.

As the latest round of Vienna talks was underway, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Dec. 2 highlighted Iran's resolve to go nuclear by enriching uranium to a purity of 20 percent, far higher than the 3.67 percent cap set in the 2015 accord.

Following the U.S. withdrawal from the seven-nation deal in 2018, Iran has significantly advanced its nuclear program.

On Dec. 4, Iranian air defenses fired a missile as part of an exercise over the central town of Natanz, in Isfahan Province the state TV reported quoting local residents who heard a large blast.

The Fordow uranium enrichment site, 32 km from the Iranian city of Qom where the IAEA said Iran conducted the test at the beginning of this month, is heavily fortified by advanced air-defense systems and deep inside a mountain. Iran's other nuclear site is at Natanz.

According to defense experts, though Iran is short of developing an explosive nuclear mechanism and placing it on a missile warhead, Tehran has achieved tangible progress in amassing sufficient fissile material.

In October Iran announced that it has enriched more than 120 kilograms of uranium to the 20 percent level, -- a major hike from the 84 kilograms that it previously enriched a month earlier.

According to a Nov. 17 report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 20 percent uranium-235 is 114 kilograms, up from 85 kilograms documented in the agency's prior report.

Under the 2015 accord, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran was barred from enriching uranium above 3.67 percent. Uranium enriched to these levels poses a more significant proliferation risk because it can be enriched more quickly to the level of weapons-grade, or 90 percent U-235.

Signed by China, Russia, France, Germany, the UK, and the US, the pact had agreed to lift sanctions against Iran if Tehran rolled back its nuclear program.

But as Washington withdrew from the pact, Iran abandoned its commitments, and the US imposed fresh sanctions in response.

Alternatively, Iran found new ways to find a market for its oil around the world to survive the US sanctions. Iran also successfully utilized the division between Russia and China with the US to its advantage.

Under the deal, Iran can enrich uranium for research. But reports stated that Iran is now refining uranium with hundreds of advanced centrifuges at Natanz.

Inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency have not made much progress as Iran has shown less willingness to comply with the IAEA Additional Protocol, which allows for snap raids on undeclared sites.

According to defense experts, Iran is eying regional hegemony with nuclear weapons and to stave off an Israel-led retaliation and to prevent a Libya -style regime change.

Iran has traveled a lot in its nuclear journey from 2015 to 2021. Tehran is no longer accelerating its enrichment to bargain at the Vienna negotiations. According to the experts, Iran has rather become a de facto latent nuclear state, that possesses the wherewithal to quickly become one - much like Japan, also a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Giving diplomacy "another chance", Talks on reviving the 2015 deal resumed on Dec. 9 and Tehran is seeking to lift "all sanctions" imposed after 2017 and asking Washington to provide the guarantees to prevent unilateral withdrawal from the deal again.

And that is the difference between Vienna 2015 and Vienna 2021.